KY-SEN: LHL poll- McConnell in BIG trouble

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

A poll out today from the Herald-Leader makes it clear:

Kentuckians don't like Mitch McConnell, and he is VULNERABLE in 2008.

Just as the last two Survey USA polls have shown, Kentuckians are starting to sour on their Senior Senator. Mitch McConnell's approval rating has fallen to 45%, while his disapproval rating has risen to 46%, the first time that any poll has shown his disapprovals eclipsing approvals.

Additionally, McConnell continues to lose support from moderates in big numbers, as only 33% approve and 61% disapprove.  His numbers among Independents aren't much better, at 37/53%.

The LHL poll also shows potential Democrats well within firing range of McConnell in next year's Senate race. Chandler, Stumbo, Horne and Luallen are all within 5 to 11% in a potential matchup against the incumbent McConnell in 2008.

The most impressive numbers among these potential challengers is that of Lt. Col. Andrew Horne. Despite the fact that Horne has low name recognition at the moment, with 55% having no opinion of him, he is still within distance of McConnell, down 45% to 34%. In comparison, the % of those having no opinion of Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen, are only 12, 13 and 23%, respectively. If Horne runs and wins the nomination, his name recognition would skyrocket, closing the gap with McConnell considerably (especially considering that Horne's approval/disapproval among those who know him is at 36/9%). From Del Ali, the president of the company who conducted the poll:

Additionally, McConnell continues to lose support from moderates in big numbers, as only 33% approve and 61% disapprove.  His numbers among Independents aren't much better, at 37/53%.

The LHL poll also shows potential Democrats well within firing range of McConnell in next year's Senate race. Chandler, Stumbo, Horne and Luallen are all within 5 to 11% in a potential matchup against the incumbent McConnell in 2008.

The most impressive numbers among these potential challengers is that of Lt. Col. Andrew Horne. Despite the fact that Horne has low name recognition at the moment, with 55% having no opinion of him, he is still within distance of McConnell, down 45% to 34%. In comparison, the % of those having no opinion of Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen, are only 12, 13 and 23%, respectively. If Horne runs and wins the nomination, his name recognition would skyrocket, closing the gap with McConnell considerably (especially considering that Horne's approval/disapproval among those who know him is at 36/9%). From Del Ali, the president of the company who conducted the poll:


"Here's a guy that half the electorate really doesn't know but yet when you put him against an incumbent whom nearly everyone knows, he's in the race," said Ali, the pollster. "It tells me the voters of Kentucky at least are open to someone to represent them differently in the U.S. Senate."

Additionally, Horne is a harder target for McConnell to smear in a potential matchup than other Democrats. From the LHL:

And McConnell already has a reputation as a fierce campaigner who seizes on opponents' political weaknesses.

For that reason, a candidate such as Horne could give McConnell the most fits, said (Democratic consultant, Danny) Briscoe.

"Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen all have public records that McConnell will look at as raw meat," he said.

Horne is also more immune to attacks from McConnell on matters of national security than other potential candidates. Horne is a 27 year Marine vet who served in both Iraq wars. His experience on the ground in the current war, along with his vocal opposition to this unpopular policy in KY, would make him a difficult target of the expected "Defeatocrat, cut-and-runner" line of attack that will be sure to come from McConnell.

.......................

This election will be a brutal fight. McConnell is well known for being one of the most cutthroat campaigners that you're ever going find. He is relentless in his attacks, and will stoop to anything to gain an edge.

This is why we need a new face in Kentucky politics to take him on. We need a candidate without baggage in their background that can be exploited.  We need a candidate with character and spine, who will stand toe-to-toe with McConnell and not back down from a fight. We need an outsider, not a career politician who runs for office every year. We need a unifying candidate for all Kentuckians across this state.

We need Lt. Col. Andrew Horne.

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)


Poll
Who can Ditch Mitch? (Chandler ain't running, folks...)
Lt. Col. Andrew Horne
Crit Luallen
Greg Stumbo
other
all of them
none of them

Votes: 7
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: KY-SEN: LHL poll- McConnell in BIG trouble (none / 0)

What do you see as Greg Stumbo's vulnerability?  I'm not asking as a Stumbo supporter or opponent; I'm from out of state but I do want McConnell out of there.  On the surface, a sitting AG would seem to have a better shot than a political newcomer.

Is Col. Horne's military experience the equalizer, or is there something else?  


The bad news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority. The good news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority.
by CLLGADEM on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 12:23:14 PM EST

Re: KY-SEN: LHL poll- McConnell in BIG trouble (none / 0)

http://polwatchers.typepad.com/pol_watch ers/2007/07/stumbo-forming-.html

not flinging mud here, but we have to be honest about what mcconnell would use


by MediaCzech on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 02:54:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-SEN: LHL poll- McConnell in BIG trouble (none / 0)

Hmmm....I see what you mean.  Thanks.


The bad news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority. The good news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority.
by CLLGADEM on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 04:45:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-SEN: LHL poll- McConnell in BIG trouble (none / 0)

Any chance Mitch might jump in the ditch himself (that is, not seek re-eelction)?


by spirowasright on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 03:36:45 PM EST

Thanks (none / 0)

Thanks for this diary!  I've linked it at Ezra Klein's blog, where I post on the weekends.  McConnell is probably the guy I want to beat the most in 2008, since he's a dangerously effective legislative tactician.  


by Neil the Ethical Werewolf on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 04:23:13 PM EST

Re: KY-SEN: LHL poll- McConnell in BIG trouble (none / 0)

I think Stumbo is a strong candidate for this seat.  I'd really like to make a solid run at McConnell.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 02:19:45 AM EST


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